Price Pressure, Refrigerant Rules, and AI Moves Into the Back Office

INDUSTRY SIGNAL

August price increases are hitting equipment, parts, and accessories

Another round of HVACR price increases is taking effect this month.

Daikin announced increases of up to 7% on ductless, VRV, and light-commercial equipment effective August 3. Goodman also announced increases of up to 7%, while RectorSeal implemented a 3% increase August 6. Other August increases span equipment, controls, accessories, sheet metal, and related products.

What it means for contractors: Quotes built around last month’s material costs can become stale quickly.

If you have older replacement proposals still outstanding, confirm current equipment and material pricing before assuming the original numbers still work.

Worth doing this week: Review the expiration period on your estimates and verify current distributor pricing on your highest-ticket equipment.

REFRIGERANT SIGNAL

The low-GWP transition is continuing, but one federal deadline changed

EPA revised portions of its HFC Technology Transitions rules in May.

One significant change: certain residential and light-commercial AC and heat-pump systems using equipment manufactured domestically or imported into the United States before January 1, 2025 can continue to be installed without the former federal installation deadline.

That does not mean the refrigerant transition has been reversed.

EPA restrictions on higher-GWP HFCs remain in place across numerous sectors, with requirements varying by equipment type, refrigerant, application, and other factors.

What it means for contractors: Be careful with shorthand explanations like “R-410A is banned” or “EPA changed everything back.”

Neither tells the full story.

Verify the equipment, manufacture/import date, application, and any applicable state requirements before giving customers or crews a definitive answer.

MARKET SIGNAL

Residential HVAC is improving, but not evenly

Recent manufacturer results show two very different sides of the market.

Lennox reported second-quarter Home Comfort Solutions revenue down 7%, driven largely by a 12% decline in unit volume. At the same time, its Building Climate Solutions business grew 24%, reflecting stronger commercial activity.

Carrier reported a stronger residential quarter. North American residential sales rose 9%, light-commercial sales increased 10%, and residential field inventory finished the quarter roughly 25% below the prior year. Carrier said replacement demand appears to be strengthening as the market moves beyond last year’s heavy repair activity and channel destocking.

The signal: Residential replacement demand may be improving, but contractors should not expect every market, customer, or manufacturer to move at the same speed.

Affordability still matters.

• Financing
• Clear diagnosis
• Repair-versus-replace explanations
• Follow-up
• Trust

A homeowner may need a system and still hesitate to buy one.

AI SIGNAL

AI is moving from “answer my question” to “do this job”

The important AI shift for contractors isn’t another chatbot.

It’s software beginning to handle repeatable business processes.

OpenAI’s workspace agents, for example, can follow defined workflows, use connected business tools, update CRMs, prepare recurring reports, qualify leads, respond to messages, and run scheduled work with human approvals where appropriate.

That same shift is already showing up in the trades.

Gardner Plumbing in California reports running 50 to 55 jobs per day with only a couple of office employees while leaning heavily on automation. Its AI virtual agent now handles routine inbound interactions that once reached office staff, with the company reporting that only about 10% to 15% of those conversations still require a person.

What it means for contractors: Stop asking only:

“What can AI do?”

“What repetitive job are we still paying a person to do manually every single day?”

• After-hours call handling
• Appointment confirmations
• Routine status calls
• Estimate follow-up
• Maintenance reminders
• Review requests
• Lead qualification
• Internal reporting

Pick one bottleneck.

Fix it.

Then move to the next one.

FIELD SIGNAL

Summer customers don’t wait for office hours

ServiceTitan analyzed inbound calls across residential HVAC contractors throughout 2025.

In June, 14.1% of inbound calls arrived outside standard business hours, compared with 9.8% in October. Weekend calls reached their highest share in August at 4.9%, compared with 2.95% in October. The largest concentration of after-hours activity occurred between roughly 5 p.m. and 9 p.m. local time.

That matters because a homeowner whose AC quits Saturday night may not wait until Monday morning to choose a contractor.

They may simply call the next company.

What actually happens when someone calls your company tonight and nobody in the office answers?

Not what is supposed to happen.

What actually happens?